After polls close on Election Day, states begin reporting vote totals, transitioning from Election Day to election night.
Some states, like Florida and Georgia, report quickly, while others, such as Arizona and California, can take a week or two to finalize results.
The order and type of votes reported can create “vote mirages,” where the initial count shows a candidate with a higher percentage than their final total.
Vote mirages can occur due to three main factors: geographic reporting differences, voting method variations, and the order of ballot counting.
For example, rural counties often report faster, which can skew results toward Republicans early in the night, as seen in Virginia.
Differences in voting methods—such as mail-in versus in-person ballots—can also cause discrepancies, as observed in North Carolina during the 2020 election when early mail-in votes favored Democrats.
Specific states exhibit unique patterns of vote mirages.
In North Carolina and Georgia, early results may show Democratic leads before Republican Election Day votes are counted.
Pennsylvania is expected to see an early blue mirage shift to red as in-person votes are reported.
Michigan may experience a slight red mirage initially, while Wisconsin and Arizona are predicted to have similar patterns of early Republican advantages that shrink as more votes are counted.
Nevada’s results will likely reflect a red mirage until the more populous Clark County reports.
Historical trends and the unique dynamics of each election will influence how these patterns play out in the upcoming elections.
