Former President Donald Trump has been projected as the likely winner of the 2024 U.S. presidential election, with a projected 312-226 victory in the Electoral College.
Trump is also expected to win the national popular vote. Key states like Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin have been projected for Trump, with leads in Arizona, Michigan, and Nevada.
The election results suggest Trump’s strong performance in swing states, marking a significant electoral success.
Three primary factors likely contributed to Trump’s victory:
1. Economic Concerns (Inflation): The cost of living and inflation were top concerns for voters. Trump performed particularly well among those focused on economic issues, winning a large share of voters who prioritized the economy over other issues like abortion or democracy.
2. Racial Polarization: Exit polls show that Trump’s support grew significantly among white voters, especially those without a college degree, and particularly among Hispanic and Latino voters. The Democrats’ margin among Latinos shrank dramatically, especially among Latino men.
3. Poor Democratic Turnout: Voter turnout was lower overall compared to 2020, with a notable decrease in Democratic-leaning areas, especially in key battleground states like Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Lower turnout in these crucial areas hurt Vice President Kamala Harris’s chances, as Democratic voters failed to show up in sufficient numbers.
Overall, the election was challenging for Harris, who struggled to connect with swing voters and mobilize her base in critical regions. Democrats will need to reassess their strategy moving forward to regain ground in future elections.
